Monday, March 9, 2009

BC Liberals headed for strong majority: Ipsos-Reid

Ipsos-Reid's latest poll contains horrific information for supporters of the Carole James' BC NDP. Despite the New Democrats opposition to the carbon tax and it's criticisms of the Campbell Government, the light which gave the NDP some hope at the end of last summer has dimmed as we approach the May 12th election.

Carole James trails Gordon Campbell by 12% in the category of who would be the better premier, it is of course interesting that Ipsos-Reid left BC Green leader Jane Sterk out of the "best premier" question despite including the BC Greens as a polling option.

Our current projection (using new redistributed riding boundry results) is based upon these numbers (from Ipsos-Reid):
BC Liberal 46%
BC NDP 34%
BC Green 16%
Other/Ind 4%

BC Liberal 68 Seats
BC NDP 16 Seats
BC Green 1 Seat
Other/Ind 0 Seats


Given poll changes, Getting out the vote (turnout) efforts and strategic voting - my polling analysis gives me these results based off of this specific poll:

BC Liberals 45% (57 Seats)
BC NDP 38% (28 Seats)
BC Greens 14% (0 Seats)
Other/Ind 3% (0 Seats)

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