New Projection Based on Two Polls

My latest projection provides these region by region results...

Metro-Vancouver:
BCL - 20 Seats - 48.9% (including...Van-Kingsway, Van-Fairview, Coq-Maillardville, and Burnaby North among others)
NDP - 8 Seats - 37.5%
GRN - 0 Seats - 13.1% (Strongest seats: False Creek, WV-Sea to Sky)
IND/OTH - 1 Seat - 4.0% (Huntington in Delta South)

Surrey/Fraser Valley:
BCL - 14 Seats - 49.7%
NDP - 3 Seats - 37.0% (Newton, Green Timbers and Whalley)
GRN - 0 Seats - 9.5% (Strongest seat: Newton)
OTH - 0 Seats - 3.7%

North:
BCL - 6 Seats - 48.9%
NDP - 2 Seats - 34.7% (Skeena, N. Coast)
GRN - 0 Seats - 10.7% (Strongest seat: Peace River South)
OTH - 0 Seats - 5.7%

Interior:
BCL - 12 Seats - 43.5%
NDP - 4 Seats - 37.7% (CR-Revelstoke, Fraser-Nicola, K. West, Nelson-Creston)
GRN - 0 Seats - 13.1% (Strongest seat: Penticton)
OTH - 0 Seats - 5.7%

Vancouver Island:
BCL - 7 Seats - 37.6% (Including...Nanaimo, North Island, Saanich South)
NDP - 8 Seats - 40.9%
GRN - 0 Seats - 18.5% (Strongest seat: Esquimalt-RR)
OTH - 0 Seats - 3.0%

BC Liberals move further into strong majority territory

My latest projection comes from a riding by riding analysis, my projection is as follows:

BCL - 61 (45.8%)
NDP - 23 (37.5%)
GRN - 0 (16.0%)
OTH - 0 (0.5%)
IND - 1 (0.2%)

The independent of course is Vicki Huntington in Delta South who I have winning by a 2% margin.

The closest seat for the Greens is Esquimalt-Royal Roads, where Jane Sterk trails by 3%

Green Party to Release Platform

I understand that the BC Green Party is expecting to release it's platform sometime this week, perhaps tonight when leader, Jane Sterk, speaks at the University of British Columbia.

In related news top blogger Stephen Rees has been announced as the Green candidate in Richmond East. Stephen is a long-time transportation planner and brings a lot of credibility to the table for the Greens, while I doubt he has much of a chance, he certainly does provide a good name for the BC Greens. Currently I am not projecting them to win any seats.

Battleground BC: Esquimalt-Royal Roads

Two-way race:

STERK, Jane
VS.
KARAGIANIS, Maurine


Esquimalt-Royal Roads is a battleground riding, and it could turn out to be a nasty suprise for the NDP.

Jane Sterk is the leader of the BC Green Party (and, in our opinion, most likely to win a seat). She was elected as an Esquimalt councillor in 2005, where she placed first of all candidates. Now she's taking on NDP MLA Maurine Karagianis who serves as the transportation critic to the government.

Maurine also served on Esquimalt council before her election to the legislature.

Both candidates are former business owners and were councillors in the same township. Maurine has the edge as an incumbant, but not as a very popular or effective one. Sterk's position on transportation issues has put pressure on the NDP and certainly pushed them into corners on issues such as the Gateway project - the NDP is divided on its support, something that could be used against Maurine.

Meanwhile, Jane might be the best shot for the Greens, but will she be effective enough to prove to the people of this riding that she deserves to replace someone who is not in government - or to even convince them that their vote is worth changing at the risk of letting a BC Liberal win.

Of course, the BC Liberals could very well play a role in this race depending on their candidate. A strong candidate can both help and hurt the Greens (help by splitting the vote three ways, hurt by taking away Jane as the main opponent).

Our first battleground BC profile goes to Esquimalt-Royal Roads, a riding we will be watching very closely on election night.

BC Liberals headed for strong majority: Ipsos-Reid

Ipsos-Reid's latest poll contains horrific information for supporters of the Carole James' BC NDP. Despite the New Democrats opposition to the carbon tax and it's criticisms of the Campbell Government, the light which gave the NDP some hope at the end of last summer has dimmed as we approach the May 12th election.

Carole James trails Gordon Campbell by 12% in the category of who would be the better premier, it is of course interesting that Ipsos-Reid left BC Green leader Jane Sterk out of the "best premier" question despite including the BC Greens as a polling option.

Our current projection (using new redistributed riding boundry results) is based upon these numbers (from Ipsos-Reid):
BC Liberal 46%
BC NDP 34%
BC Green 16%
Other/Ind 4%

BC Liberal 68 Seats
BC NDP 16 Seats
BC Green 1 Seat
Other/Ind 0 Seats


Given poll changes, Getting out the vote (turnout) efforts and strategic voting - my polling analysis gives me these results based off of this specific poll:

BC Liberals 45% (57 Seats)
BC NDP 38% (28 Seats)
BC Greens 14% (0 Seats)
Other/Ind 3% (0 Seats)